Research & Discovery > Predicting Alzheimer’s Before It Starts

Predicting Alzheimer’s Before It Starts

By Mayo Clinic Illustration by Nomoco

Mayo Clinic researchers have developed a prediction model that can estimate an individual’s risk of developing memory and thinking problems associated with Alzheimer’s disease years before symptoms appear.

The tool looks at basic health information, including age, sex, genetic makeup and brain imaging of amyloid protein, to predict a person’s likelihood of developing mild cognitive impairment or dementia within 10 years or over their remaining lifetime.

The model is built on data from more than 5,500 participants in the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging, one of the world’s most comprehensive long-running brain health studies. By following participants for years and carefully tracking medical outcomes, researchers were able to create one of the most complete pictures of who is likely to have cognitive decline.

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Brain scan results showing amyloid buildup proved to be the strongest predictor of lifetime risk. The research also revealed that women and people carrying a particular gene variant, known as APOE 4, face higher lifetime risk than the general population.

This breakthrough comes at a pivotal moment: The Food and Drug Administration recently approved therapies that remove amyloid from the brain and can slow disease progression in people with mild cognitive impairment or early dementia.

Knowing who is at risk before symptoms begin could help physicians determine when to begin therapy and guide patients in making proactive lifestyle changes.

This work is part of Mayo Clinic’s broader Precure initiative aimed at intercepting disease before it evolves into complex, hard-to-treat conditions and was supported by the National Institute on Aging, the GHR Foundation, Gates Ventures, and the Alexander Family Foundation.

A version of this story was published on Mayo Clinic News Network.